With a cold eye (23 November)
Analysis of Saturday’s races.
I: 3-year old and older French trotters, 2,400 m
Usita is in the form and the spectators are most likely to regard her a favourite. Quan de Burgogne performed well last week, beating slightly Thetis des Neuzy. They both were carried offensively and were defeated by Usita on a straight section, but maybe this time they will be more dangerous. Super Morainville performed much poorer. Saga sparkled winning firmly, but within time as much as 6.2 sec. worse than Usita. Stockholm d’Oyse and Mayorina were then disqualified for a gallop. It will be the first appearance for Mascotte de Corday since 2007
II: 3-year-old and older thoroughbreds, hcp. Gr. IV, 1,600 m
It will be extremely difficult to identify the favourites of the race. The winning post has recently been passed almost simultaneously by Hajnówka (59 kg), Iwetta (60) and Harmatan (57.5), while Talizman (44), Salopa (56) and then surprisingly poorly predisposed Salista (54.5) have not lost to them too much. It seems that details may be decisive, but the weights slightly changed in favour of Harmatan and Talizman, being ridden without the whip this time. Daston (63.5), which raced in slightly better rates, is in the form. Corelli, ridden by an apprentice, will carry as much as 65.5 kg. Nafta (60.5) has probably a better chance than Test, which poorly managed during this year (56.5).
III: 3-year-old Arabians (Polish Arabian Stud Book), Gr. II, 1,800 m
The best and most equal results are gained by Marini and Wakat, twice defeated by Marini. After two very good performances, Al-Dar has recently disappointed us a little, unexpectedly losing to better ad better Gihad Al Khalediah. Mares: robust Madlen and yet poorly experienced Moria can make a mess at the forefront. Eryn, Drago and Enzan seem to have smaller chances.
IV: 2-year-old thoroughbreds, Gr. II, 1,200 m
Santa Pola was withdrawn. Baritone has had two successful starts and he is likely to be a strong favourite. Liga runs reliably, while Nubile presented a good debut. Mary Kelly buried her chance from the start and remains difficult to assess. Erlaff appeared poorly, so I think we can expect more from Strateg and Sybir, which make their debut late due to health problems. If Strateg wins, he will win the last bonus of five thousand pounds for his owner.
V: 4-year-old and older Arabians, hcp. Gr. III, 1,600 m
Hiszpan (58.5 kg) defeated Parbelia (56), Ananke (59.5) and Naida in a convincing style on Saturday. The stallion will be the favourite of the race, while mares can again compete for a position at the forefront, as there was a small distance between them at the winning post. Mangobei (60) lost more, but shortened distance is favourable to him. Nairobu Rose (56) presented badly in the same run and she does not seem likely to improve so much during the week to play a greater role. The highest weight will be carried by Sariah Alkhalediah (63), showing a stable form, and he probably should be given more chances than weak Cukebar, carrying as much as 15 kg less. An ambiguous horse is Zolin (60), which failed to exist in a better company last week.
VI: 3-year-old and older thoroughbreds, Gr. III, 1,400 m
Nid has recently gained an impressive victory. This time his rivals are definitely better, but maybe he will keep up the momentum. Old Man Song also presented very well, beating Daremi by 10 lengths. Khloe and Karteczka keep in good shape. Keep the Promise also performed well after a longer break, and he might be more dangerous this time. Others seem to be weaker.
VII: 2-year-old thoroughbreds, Gr. II, 1,400 m
Overgrown Singapur began his career with success, beating then favoured Pantera by 2.25 length. A challenging rival should be Mist, which had two good starts at a distance of about 400 m. Baia Farta, which is the most experienced in this company, improved her performance so she cannot be underestimated. We were not impressed by still immature Indals, ending 4 lengths behind him, and Bachant worse than him then by about 9.75 lengths. Saksonia and Litek, which clearly lost the debut with Mist (by 15 l.).
VIII ? Savvannah Award (series A): 3-year old Arabians, Gr. I, 2,000 m
Harmonica and Naura, which were slightly ahead of Epiona, made a positive surprise with their good attitude in the race for the Award of Orla (Mazurkiewicz will ride instead of Piątkowski). All three of them should fall into the group of the favourites. Wespa performed poorer, though, she did not lose too much as compared to Om Moksha. Perhaps, they will present better this time. Adrenalina, which is fast at the finish, is likely to perform well, although she does not have the experience to compete at the level of group I. After a series of standard performances, Aurora gained victory in the group of average horses. After successful debiut, Fraszka performed much worse later.
IX: 3-year-old and older thoroughbreds, Gr. II, 1,800 m
Equal level. Solo Su should not miss the game, but Belmondina, Jałta, Dakard and Myth of Malham also have a good chance. Dżusticja and unequally running Fantastic Dream cannot be underestimated as well. Only Incinatus seems to have less chance.
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